[May '26 Macro] پست ۳ - بیتکوین (BTCUSD)
trader_kyeol
مشخصات معامله
نوع معامله:
فروش
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۷۸,۳۰۸.۸۶
توضیحات
(※ This is the introduction that will be identically placed at the top of 5 posts: US 10-Year Treasury Yield, Dollar Index, NASDAQ Index, Gold, and Bitcoin.)
The recent rise in the NASDAQ has been exceptionally steep, and until relatively recently, gold was hitting new all-time highs.
The market cheered, calling it the blessing of the AI era and a geopolitical hedge, but I think it is time to look at the trend slowly changing behind the party.
At the foundation of this thought are three pillars: the April CPI, US Treasury yields, and the Dollar.
April CPI
The two CPI figures released in April and May brought the forgotten inflation issue back to the surface.
The impact of soaring oil prices is large, but the Core CPI was also high at the same time.
Actually, without even going to the Core CPI, even if oil prices come down again, there is a high probability that a new normal will settle in a range higher than the $50-60 per barrel level of the period when expectations for rate cuts were rampant—when no one thought about oil prices.
(Current oil price: $100.6 per barrel)
Because of this, the Fed is caught in a dilemma.
-If they cut the base rate, they cannot ignore the inflation risk.
-If they raise the base rate, there is a massive US fiscal deficit and a labor market that seems to be cooling down.
(Also, they do not want to ruin the mood when the NASDAQ is doing well, and political pressure is hard to ignore.)
US Treasury Yields
Along with inflation concerns, the yields on US 10-year and 30-year Treasuries have rebounded to a considerable level. (Current 10-year yield: 4.6%)
Just until early this year, there were many expectations that it would soon stabilize in the mid-to-high 3% range.
Dollar
For the past two years, US interest rates were quite high, but compared to that, the drop in the dollar's value was large. (This is partly because the Euro was strong.)
From now on, as US Treasury yields rise further, there is a high probability that global liquidity will be sucked in to secure dollars.
___________________________________________
At this point, we cannot leave out the NASDAQ index and Gold when discussing Bitcoin.
The recent rise in the NASDAQ index is exceptionally steep.
There have been times when technical indicators showed overheating at this level, but it is unusual for it to happen this fast in terms of time.
Big Tech's AI infrastructure CAPEX competition and the trickle-down effect are driving the entire value chain, and this seems to have placed the NASDAQ into a 'partial bubble' territory.
Then, as some market participants say,
will that money move to Bitcoin when the NASDAQ undergoes a correction?
My conclusion is, "The probability is very low."
Over the past two years, while the NASDAQ and Gold have continuously risen even in a relatively high-interest-rate environment,
Bitcoin formed its peak earlier than the two (in October 2025) and has been thoroughly neglected by the market, falling for 6 months.
This is evidence that Bitcoin is currently in an ambiguous position in the market:
-As a risk asset, it is losing to the NASDAQ.
-As a store of value (inflation hedge, i.e., digital gold), it is losing to real gold.
-As expected inflation and the 10-year yield rise, and the attractiveness of the dollar increases:
Expected inflation - Bitcoin lagging behind real gold
10-year yield rising - Increased attractiveness of bonds
Dollar rising - Increased attractiveness of cash and MMFs (Money Market Funds)
When the NASDAQ and Gold start a full-scale correction, this narrative suddenly flips and the cash from selling the NASDAQ and Gold moves to Bitcoin?
It is not realistic.
There is a high probability that money will simply ignore Bitcoin and stay in cash, or move to MMFs and some commodities.
Technical View
Bitcoin closed down below the 20-day moving average.
This is the first time it closed down since a single upward wave that started at the end of March broke above the 20-day moving average.
The range of the Volume Profile shown on the chart covers the entire wave from the October 2025 high to the February 2026 low.
Even though it entered a vacuum zone (Low Volume Node) where the volume is quite empty in early May, it fails to continue its upward movement.
This adds weight to the possibility of weakness.
In conclusion, I think the possibility of a drop to around 72K is very high.
The direction after that will have to be judged again, but I think the downward pressure will still not be small even after that.
We can also look at Ethereum at the same time, which broke downwards out of the consolidation pattern formed since the end of April.
Considering Bitcoin Dominance, if it is true that Bitcoin is heading downwards, I think the probability that Ethereum will hold up well is not high.
The recent rise in the NASDAQ has been exceptionally steep, and until relatively recently, gold was hitting new all-time highs.
The market cheered, calling it the blessing of the AI era and a geopolitical hedge, but I think it is time to look at the trend slowly changing behind the party.
At the foundation of this thought are three pillars: the April CPI, US Treasury yields, and the Dollar.
April CPI
The two CPI figures released in April and May brought the forgotten inflation issue back to the surface.
The impact of soaring oil prices is large, but the Core CPI was also high at the same time.
Actually, without even going to the Core CPI, even if oil prices come down again, there is a high probability that a new normal will settle in a range higher than the $50-60 per barrel level of the period when expectations for rate cuts were rampant—when no one thought about oil prices.
(Current oil price: $100.6 per barrel)
Because of this, the Fed is caught in a dilemma.
-If they cut the base rate, they cannot ignore the inflation risk.
-If they raise the base rate, there is a massive US fiscal deficit and a labor market that seems to be cooling down.
(Also, they do not want to ruin the mood when the NASDAQ is doing well, and political pressure is hard to ignore.)
US Treasury Yields
Along with inflation concerns, the yields on US 10-year and 30-year Treasuries have rebounded to a considerable level. (Current 10-year yield: 4.6%)
Just until early this year, there were many expectations that it would soon stabilize in the mid-to-high 3% range.
Dollar
For the past two years, US interest rates were quite high, but compared to that, the drop in the dollar's value was large. (This is partly because the Euro was strong.)
From now on, as US Treasury yields rise further, there is a high probability that global liquidity will be sucked in to secure dollars.
___________________________________________
At this point, we cannot leave out the NASDAQ index and Gold when discussing Bitcoin.
The recent rise in the NASDAQ index is exceptionally steep.
There have been times when technical indicators showed overheating at this level, but it is unusual for it to happen this fast in terms of time.
Big Tech's AI infrastructure CAPEX competition and the trickle-down effect are driving the entire value chain, and this seems to have placed the NASDAQ into a 'partial bubble' territory.
Then, as some market participants say,
will that money move to Bitcoin when the NASDAQ undergoes a correction?
My conclusion is, "The probability is very low."
Over the past two years, while the NASDAQ and Gold have continuously risen even in a relatively high-interest-rate environment,
Bitcoin formed its peak earlier than the two (in October 2025) and has been thoroughly neglected by the market, falling for 6 months.
This is evidence that Bitcoin is currently in an ambiguous position in the market:
-As a risk asset, it is losing to the NASDAQ.
-As a store of value (inflation hedge, i.e., digital gold), it is losing to real gold.
-As expected inflation and the 10-year yield rise, and the attractiveness of the dollar increases:
Expected inflation - Bitcoin lagging behind real gold
10-year yield rising - Increased attractiveness of bonds
Dollar rising - Increased attractiveness of cash and MMFs (Money Market Funds)
When the NASDAQ and Gold start a full-scale correction, this narrative suddenly flips and the cash from selling the NASDAQ and Gold moves to Bitcoin?
It is not realistic.
There is a high probability that money will simply ignore Bitcoin and stay in cash, or move to MMFs and some commodities.
Technical View
Bitcoin closed down below the 20-day moving average.
This is the first time it closed down since a single upward wave that started at the end of March broke above the 20-day moving average.
The range of the Volume Profile shown on the chart covers the entire wave from the October 2025 high to the February 2026 low.
Even though it entered a vacuum zone (Low Volume Node) where the volume is quite empty in early May, it fails to continue its upward movement.
This adds weight to the possibility of weakness.
In conclusion, I think the possibility of a drop to around 72K is very high.
The direction after that will have to be judged again, but I think the downward pressure will still not be small even after that.
We can also look at Ethereum at the same time, which broke downwards out of the consolidation pattern formed since the end of April.
Considering Bitcoin Dominance, if it is true that Bitcoin is heading downwards, I think the probability that Ethereum will hold up well is not high.
منتخب سردبیر
مشاهده بیشتردستیار هوشمند ارز دیجیتال
ترمینال ترید بایتیکل نرمافزار جامع ترید و سرمایهگذاری در بازار ارز دیجیتال است و امکاناتی مانند دورههای آموزشی ترید و سرمایهگذاری، تریدینگ ویو بدون محدودیت، هوش مصنوعی استراتژی ساز ترید، کلیه دادههای بازارهای مالی شامل دادههای اقتصاد کلان، تحلیل احساسات بازار، تکنیکال و آنچین، اتصال و مدیریت حساب صرافیها و تحلیلهای لحظهای را برای کاربران فراهم میکند.
