BTC: روز ۱۸ از دوره گاوی — بازآزمایی سه‌روزه سطح ۸۰ هزار دلار در حال پایان یافتن است.

Regime State

INDEX:BTCUSD is in a Bull regime for 18 bars, with the RegimeRisk score holding at 2.5 - consistent throughout the regime, no change. The classifier has maintained Bull alignment across three consecutive sessions that tested the $79K–$80K breakout zone, which is the key structural read: the regime held through the retest without score deterioration.

The Setup

Price is currently at $80,385, having opened at $80,192 and printed a session low of $80,120 — notably the low held above $80K for the first time in three sessions, suggesting the retest zone is finding acceptance rather than continued pressure. The sequence is now clear on the chart: $76K regime entry → $80K breakout on day 11 → three-session retest of that breakout level → current session holding above it. Yesterday's close above $79,800 preserved the higher low, and today's session opening and holding above $80K is the first indication the retest may be complete. The $82.8K–$83K overhead zone remains the next reference — price hasn't revisited it since the May 6 session high of $82,814.

What Would Change the Read

A close back below $79K would break the higher low structure and invalidate the retest-held thesis — that level has now been tested three times and a fourth test with a close below it would carry different weight than the first two. A close above $81.5K with the session holding would suggest the retest is done and the next leg is beginning. Score at 2.5 continues to provide no momentum buffer, so price structure is carrying the full weight of the bull case.

Continuity

Previous Idea (May 8) called $79K as the invalidation and noted the two-day retest as constructive. Three days in, no close below $79K, and today's session is the first to hold above $80K on the open. Retest thesis holding.