ستاپ روزانه BTC 2026-07-18

BTC is consolidating at 63,971 after rebounding from the 62,800 low. The 4H chart shows a recovery but has been rejected below the 64,400-65,000 resistance zone, while the MACD has turned bearish again (-44). On the 1H timeframe, price has recovered from 62,400 and is stabilizing around 63,900-64,000, with the MACD still positive but flattening. The 15M and 5M charts are trading sideways within a tight 63,800-64,100 range, with momentum gradually fading. As long as the broader weekly bear market remains intact, selling pressure is likely to emerge on rallies into the 64,400/65,000 resistance zone. The key levels to watch are a breakout above 64,400 or a break below 63,600, which would open the path toward 62,800.

## Scenario 1 – Primary

**Range Long Toward the 64,400 Magnet**

**Probability:** 52%

As long as 63,600 holds, the 1H momentum favors another push toward the 64,400 liquidity magnet. The preferred setup is a long entry from range support with confirmation.

**① Entry**
63,850-63,950 (middle of the range / 5M support).

**② Trigger**
A 5M or 15M candle close above 64,050 with increasing volume.

**Stop**
63,560 (below the range low).

**Targets**

* **T1:** 64,400 ✦
* **T2:** 64,800
* **T3:** 65,000

**Invalidation:**
A 1H candle close below 63,600 invalidates the long setup and activates Scenario 2 (short toward 62,800).

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## Scenario 2 – Alternative

**Short Toward the 62,800 Magnet**

**Probability:** 48%

In line with the broader weekly bear market, a break below the 63,600 range support would trigger a sell-off through the relatively thin price zone toward the 62,800 liquidity magnet.

**① Entry**
63,550-63,600 (retest after the breakdown).

**② Trigger**
A 1H candle close below 63,600.

**Stop**
64,150 (above the range high).

**Targets**

* **T1:** 63,200
* **T2:** 62,800
* **T3:** 62,400

**Invalidation:**
A 1H reclaim above 64,050 invalidates the short setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 1 (long toward 64,400).

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Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Triggers outweigh opinions—only trade after confirmation. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.