مقاومت نزولی کلیدی

**Core Bearish Resistance (Key Risk Factors for Next Week)**

💦 **1. Massive accumulation of "trapped" positions in the 64,800–65,500 range**
During the recent decline from 82,850, the 64,500–65,500 zone marked the starting point of the initial high-volume drop. A large volume of underwater positions is concentrated here; any low-volume rally is highly likely to trigger mass profit-taking and sell-offs, making this a critical zone of heavy resistance.

**Pressure from expectations of a hawkish Fed policy**

🔷 **2. Market pricing indicates a 70% probability that the July 29 policy meeting will maintain high interest rates, with a residual risk of a minor rate hike**
If officials collectively signal a hawkish stance prior to the meeting, a rebound in US Treasury yields would directly suppress risk assets like Bitcoin, triggering capital outflows.

🔼 **3. Probability of the CLARITY crypto bill passing has dropped significantly**
The likelihood of the bill passing this year has fallen from 74% to 40%. With only 20 working days remaining before the Senate recess, there is a high probability that legislation will be delayed until 2027. This cools expectations for what was previously the most significant regulatory tailwind for this bull market, weakening the medium-to-long-term bullish narrative and capping the potential for a rebound.

🔴 **4. The rebound is driven by a short squeeze; fundamental support remains weak**
The recent rally has relied heavily on passive buying triggered by short-covering from short-term contract traders. While retail investors are chasing the rise, institutional buying volume remains limited. This is a classic "dead cat bounce"; once leveraged long positions face mass liquidation, the market will rapidly revert to a weak, downward trend.