AVAX/USDT - دوباره بالا رفت، اما هنوز از محدوده خارج نشده است

Katsu on the Bridge. The AVAX radar is showing an interesting, but quite tricky structure right now.
From the first sideways range, price broke down, then almost fully climbed back toward the previous range inside an ascending channel. However, that ascending channel turned out to be more of a corrective bounce, because on July 8, price broke down from it.
Since then, a new range has formed, roughly between 6.34 and 6.80. Right now, price is trading around 6.72, so we are already in the upper third of the range. This is important because this is not a good place to chase longs, while shorts are not active either until we see real rejection.

What Does the Market Structure Say?
After the big drop, the ascending channel may have looked bullish at first, but:

price could not hold above 7.00;
price broke down from the ascending channel;
the lower side of the previous channel no longer held;
the top of the new range formed lower, around 6.80.

Because of this, the 4H picture is still neutral, with a slightly bearish structural tone.
To talk about a real bullish reversal, AVAX would need to reclaim at least the 6.80–7.00 area and hold above it.
The RSI is around 56, so there is some positive momentum, but it is not overbought yet. Buyers are getting stronger, but the indicator alone does not confirm a range breakout. Visible buying and selling volume look fairly balanced, so there is no clear directional decision yet.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

7.00 — has stopped the move several times already
6.80 — top of the current range, first major resistance
6.45–6.50 — reaction zone below the range midpoint
6.36 — a support level, but not a very strong one in my opinion; currently the bottom of the sideways range
6.01 — slowdown zone; if this cannot hold, then the previous low and final 4H defensive zone is around 5.68


LONG Setup — Breakout and Retest
I would not buy blindly at the current price.

A cleaner long setup would activate if:
a 4H candle closes above 6.82;
price retests the broken resistance;
on the 15-minute or 1H chart, the 6.78–6.82 zone starts acting as support.

Possible Plan
Entry: 6.79–6.83
Stop Loss: below 6.65
TP1: 7.02–7.07
TP2: 7.50 — quite ambitious
Invalidation: close back below 6.70

With an entry around 6.81 and a stop around 6.65, the 7.07 target gives roughly a 2.0 RR setup. The key word here is confirmation. A single wick above 6.82 could easily be a liquidity grab. For a long setup, I want to see a proper close and a successful retest. Without that, the entry is just a lottery ticket.

SHORT Setup — Rejection From the Range High
Based on the current chart position, this setup is closer to activation, but it is still not an automatic entry.

Short Conditions
For the short setup, I would want to see:

price wicking into the 6.78–6.82 area;
price failing to hold above it;
a bearish SFP, bearish engulfing candle, or bearish ChoCh on the lower timeframe;
price moving back below 6.74.

Possible Plan
Entry: 6.76–6.80, after confirmation
Stop Loss: around the 6.91 OB
TP1: 6.50
TP2: 6.42
TP3: 6.34
Invalidation: stable 4H close above 6.82

An entry around 6.78, with a stop at 6.91 and a second target at 6.42, gives roughly a 2.7 RR setup. But if price only ranges between 6.70 and 6.78, then there is no short either. I want to see a clear reaction from the top of the range.
This is not financial advice.
The raccoon was simply thinking out loud about AVAX today. I wrote down what I see, what I think, and how I would trade it.
Then either I am right…
or we learn from it. :))