BTC تنظیمات روزانه 2026-07-14

BTC is trading at 62,733 following the sharp sell-off on July 13, which drove price from around 64,400 down to 61,750. On the 5M and 15M charts, a healthy recovery is underway, supported by a bullish MACD and a series of higher lows since 61,750. The 1H chart shows a fresh reclaim above 62,400, with the MACD turning positive. However, the 1H EMAs are still overhead, while the 4H timeframe remains under pressure, with the MACD deeply negative and price still below the 50 and 200 EMAs. The broader weekly trend remains bearish, making the current move a countertrend rally within a 4H correction. The key resistance zone is 63,000-63,200, which marks the previous 1H support turned resistance. Above that, 64,000 becomes the next upside target. On the downside, 62,000 provides immediate support, followed by the reclaim base at 61,750.

Scenario 1 – Primary

Recovery Continues Toward the 63,200 Resistance

Probability: 55%

As long as 62,000 holds and momentum on the 15M and 1H charts remains positive, the recovery is likely to extend toward the 63,000-63,200 liquidity magnet. This is a countertrend trade, so profit targets should be managed conservatively given the bearish 4H and weekly backdrop.

① Entry
Long on a pullback into 62,400-62,550 (retest of the reclaim) or on confirmation above 62,850.

② Trigger
A 1H candle close above 62,850 with a bullish MACD, while the 15M chart continues to print higher lows.

Stop
Below 62,000 (beneath the 1H structure and the 9 SMA).

Targets

T1: 63,200 ✦
T2: 63,600
T3: 64,000 ✦

Invalidation:
A 1H candle close below 62,000 shifts the outlook bearish and activates Scenario 2 (pullback to the 61,750 reclaim base).

Scenario 2 – Alternative

Fakeout at Resistance & Pullback to the Base

Probability: 45%

In line with the bearish 4H and weekly trend, the recovery fails within the 62,800-63,200 resistance zone as sellers regain control. A break below 62,000 activates the long liquidation magnet at 61,750. Below that, the relatively thin price structure opens the path toward 60,800.

① Entry
Short on a rejection between 62,800-63,200 or on a retest after a break below 62,000.

② Trigger
A 1H candle close below 62,000, or a clear bearish rejection candle around 63,100-63,200.

Stop
Above 63,400 (above the resistance zone and EMA cluster).

Targets

T1: 61,750
T2: 61,200
T3: 60,800

Invalidation:
A 1H candle close above 63,400 invalidates the short setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 1, targeting 64,000.

Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Trade the confirmation, not the opinion. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.