Bitcoin در حال فشرده‌سازی نقدینگی است — آیا حرکت بزرگ‌تری در راه است؟

Bitcoin is currently showing a very interesting structure on the H4 chart. Price is no longer experiencing aggressive selloffs like it did in the middle of the month, but at the same time, buyers still lack enough strength to trigger a clear breakout. Instead, the market has entered a tightening sideways phase around the 77.5K – 78K zone, where both bulls and bears are aggressively probing each other.

What stands out to me is that after the sharp decline from the 82K area, Bitcoin failed to create significantly lower lows and instead started forming a structure that looks more like selling-pressure absorption. Recent bearish candles have become smaller, while volume is no longer exploding like during the earlier panic-sell phase — a sign that selling pressure from short-term holders is gradually weakening.

From a capital flow perspective, the market currently feels more like rotation rather than capitulation. Money is not truly leaving crypto; instead, it’s rotating rapidly between BTC, altcoins, and stablecoins. This explains why price is declining without triggering the kind of aggressive capitulation seen during previous dump phases.

EMA34 is now acting as a clear short-term resistance around 77.8K – 78K. Meanwhile, EMA89 above continues sloping downward, suggesting the medium-term trend has not fully turned bullish again. In other words, BTC remains trapped inside a major liquidity battle zone.

Another important detail is the increasing number of liquidity sweeps on both sides of the market. Price repeatedly sweeps lows and then rebounds aggressively — behavior that often appears when smart money is collecting liquidity ahead of a larger directional move.

If BTC successfully reclaims the 78.5K area and holds above EMA89, the path back toward 80K – 81K could open very quickly. However, if price keeps failing below this zone, the current rebound could easily turn into a short-term bull trap before Bitcoin revisits the 76K area or even lower.

Right now, this does not look like an ideal environment to FOMO into breakout trades. The market remains noisy, volatility is compressed, and liquidity traps are appearing everywhere — and historically, it’s usually after these “sleepy” phases that the real explosive move finally begins.