4h SKY LONG — استراتژی میانگین ALMA

ALMA Averaging Strategy adds while ALMA phase stays SHORT and Cur Short minus Avg Short clears the entry min diff. Pyramiding: 25% per qualifying bar. Exits follow ALMA LONG plus min diff on the long leg — not the discretionary green TP lines drawn on the chart. Hard stop: 10% below working average when enabled.

ALMA board (~0.067, 27.05)

15m through 1W: SHORT on the formal tile. 4H: Cur Short 7 vs Avg Short ~3.6 — diff 3.4 bars, clears the 3-bar gate. 1D Cur Short 5 vs ~3.0. No Cur Long on the export tile — live chart already shows Cur Long 10 vs Avg Long ~2.6 while State still reads SHORT.

EMA / session grid (f5f421 Metric, ~0.07 print, 27.05)

15m Above with Cur Long 3; 1H through 1W Below. 1H Cur Short 26 vs Avg ~8.0 — extreme micro short crowding in that row. 4H Cur Short 12 vs ~9.1; 1D Cur Short 19 vs ~6.7. Dev% ramps: 4H ~+1.4%, 1D ~+6.3%, 3D ~+6.4% in the export — stretched below the slow EMA stack on the execution clocks. Live 4H table in the grab prints higher Dev (5.4% on 4H, ~10.9% on 1D) after the additional dump to ~0.065 — same “pressed below mean” read, sharper tag. Log burst same day: RSI 9 oversold; fractal low broken; new HTF bull/bear FVG — volatility around structure, not a clean trend handoff.

Footprint (4H)

At the green demand pocket (~0.0655–0.0665) the cluster print shows heavy trade at the lows with aggressive buy delta on the tails (large green delta cells vs the prior red waterfall) — absorption read, not proof of reversal. Fork: micro bids defend the shelf while 4H ALMA still wears a short-phase jacket.

VWAP / volume profile (4H)

Visible-range profile reads P-shape: HVN stacked at the 0.072–0.074 origin, thin LVN through the waterfall, fresh b-shape building at 0.0655–0.0660 — sellers already ran the vacuum; the fight is whether the low node holds. POC 0.07017 overhead: spot ~0.0655 sits ~6.6% under session fair, still outside value, not a reclaim. Bar volume anomaly: climax on the dump candle, then shrinking bodies with rising participation and positive footprint delta (~+256K / ~+292K) on the shelf — absorption attempt, not trend proof. Chart-TF support VWAP hugs the green pocket; red HTF ribbons tier above — daily ~0.0695–0.0705, weekly (widest) ~0.0715–0.072 caps relief. 4H touch stats: support FE P(≥1) ~84% (lines usually do something) but K/M br ~65% vs bounce ~35% — react, then often break. Forecast: defend support VWAP + b-node → mean reversion toward POC 0.070, then daily ribbon; lose 0.0655 through the VAL shelf → P-trap longs unwind toward ~0.063–0.064.

SMC — timeline

4H (~0.0679, 27.05): OB enter bull stack into the mid-0.068s, then MS Trend Down ~0.069 on the same session — two-way ledger into the drop.

1D (~0.0692, 26.05): daily print still inside the post-rally digestion band.
After the flush: ladder of FVG Enter Bull on 27–28.05 at ~0.0656–0.0658 — bid-side inefficiency filling into the waterfall low, aligns with ALMA adds, not a macro coronation.

Trend — 1D

Regime: tactical long inside a larger uptrend that just broke the orange channel — price testing the green higher-low rail near ~0.065. Hold that rail → mean-reversion toward the 0.068–0.072 congestion; sustained acceptance below ~0.063–0.064 re-opens the spring liquidity story. Geometry only — ALMA exits rule the script.

Derivatives — skew

Funding slightly positive; OI recovering off the late-May low; account book ~two-thirds short with L/S ratio ~0.5 — crowded short into a bounce attempt. CVD still soft on the edge; net long positioning negative in the strip — book not screaming aggressive lift yet. Contrarian fuel if price reclaims ~0.068 fast; squeeze risk if the shelf fails.

Social — attention vs sentiment

Sentiment pegged high (~75%) while social dominance and active posts spike on the last bars — loud crowd arriving late into a dump. Good for narrative pops; bad as sole thesis without price follow-through.

On-chain (1D bundle)

Active addresses and USD transaction volume show May spikes vs a quieter baseline — network woke up around the volatility window; not a widening holder base story by itself.

Positive factors
- ALMA 4H: Cur Short ~2× avg (diff 3.4 > min 3); entry gate satisfied; counter-short-add template
- EMA: 1H Cur Short 26 vs ~8 — fat short crowding; Dev% stretched on 4H/1D after dump to ~0.065
- Footprint: absorption ~0.0655–0.0665; buy delta on tails (~+256K / +292K on shelf bars)
- VP/VWAP: P-shape HVN 0.072–0.074; b-node 0.0655–0.066; POC 0.07017; support VWAP holds; weekly ribbon ~0.0715–0.072 caps pop
- SMC: FVG Enter Bull ladder 27–28.05 ~0.0656–0.0658 — lines up with ALMA Long Adds
- Derivatives: ~two-thirds of accounts short; L/S ~0.5; OI recovering off May low — squeeze fuel
- Trend 1D: price on green higher-low rail ~0.065; path toward 0.068–0.072 if rail holds
- Log: RSI 9 oversold; fractal low broken
- Backtest context: ~69% win; avg win ~+9.6% vs avg loss ~−6.5% on attached strip (not a live promise)

Negative factors
- SMC: MS Trend Down ~0.069 still fresh on 4H after bull OB stack
- Derivatives: CVD soft; net long positioning negative — no aggressive lift yet
- Trend 1D: orange channel broken — tactical bounce inside larger digestion, not macro reclaim
- Social: high sentiment + dominance spike into the dump — narrative without follow-through
- Footprint vs ALMA: micro bids at shelf while 4H ALMA phase still SHORT
- VP/VWAP: ~6.6% under POC; 4H stats K/M br ~65% on support — break bias after touch; HTF ribbons overhead
- Liquidity: thin alt — wrong bounce eats pyramids
- Risk: hard stop 10% caps nominal loss, not gap on perps
- Backtest: headline return on strip almost flat despite high win rate},{