اهداف بیت‌کوین در سال 2025: بازنگری واقع‌بینانه

Forecasting is easy. Being right is hard.

1. When Targets Turn Into Illusions

Look at this chart.
Bitcoin at $90,000. Sixteen days left in 2025.
And every “expert” target — JPMorgan, VanEck, Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, Kiyosaki, BlackRock, Cathie Wood —
all of them missed. Every single one.

Why?
Because it’s almost impossible to stay objective when you own the asset you’re predicting.
When you hold a position, your mind paints infinity.
You stop seeing the market — you start seeing your hopes.
You stop analyzing — you start believing.

These price targets were never forecasts.
They were wishful thinking, dressed up as analysis.

2. My Position — Stay Sane

In my posts, I always try to remain objective and grounded.
I don’t trade emotions.
I observe, analyze, and share what I actually see — not what I want to see.

And here’s what I see now:
Those bullish targets might still be achieved one day —
but not by the end of 2025.
Not even by the end of 2026.

According to my cycle analysis, the next real bull market peak will come around 2029.
And even then, it’s hard to name a precise number.
But if history repeats — and each new cycle doubles the previous one —
then levels like $250k, $275k, or even $300k are possible.

Still, even those words must be questioned.
Because the market has one constant lesson — humility.
And those who sound most confident are usually the first to be wrong.

3. Why Bitcoin Will Keep Growing Anyway

Despite all the chaos and uncertainty, one thing remains clear:
Bitcoin will keep growing in the long run.

The reasons are structural, not emotional:

mining difficulty keeps rising,

competition among miners is increasing,

the industry is expanding,

institutional interest is growing,

the circulating supply is shrinking,

the market is becoming more concentrated, leveraged, and volatile.

We’re witnessing moves that a few years ago were unimaginable.
A $20,000 daily swing is no longer shocking — it’s the new normal.

Just look back at October 11th — Bitcoin dropped $20,000 in a single day.
That’s a record.
And it will be broken again.
Because the game keeps escalating.

Bitcoin won’t die.
Unlike thousands of altcoins that fade into oblivion,
Bitcoin has too many players, too much capital, too much gravity to disappear.

4. Where We Are Now

Let’s be honest —
we’re not even halfway through this bear market.
Not even close.
Maybe 20% of the way.

The real pain is still ahead — disappointment, capitulation, and exhaustion.
And not only among retail traders.
Funds, miners, corporations — all of them will face it.

Every cycle demands maximum rejection.
It needs the crowd to give up.
That’s how markets reset.

Bear markets are not crashes — they’re slow, grinding declines that strip away hope.
They don’t destroy capital first — they destroy conviction.

5. The Bicycle Metaphor

If you plan to stay in this market the whole way down,
I’ll compare you to a man riding a bicycle downhill.

He tells himself:

“Yes, I’m going down, but I’ll keep pedaling.
When others quit, I’ll be ahead.”

But the truth is —
when he reaches the bottom,
and the next uphill begins,
he’ll have no strength left to climb.

He’ll be burned out — mentally, financially, emotionally.
He won’t make it up the next mountain.

6. What’s Happening Now

Right now, we’re in a correction phase.
The impulse move is over.
The small bounces you see — they’re not a reversal,
just temporary relief before the next leg down.

This is not the start of a new bull market — it’s a pause between declines.
The macro setup doesn’t support growth yet.
The structure isn’t there.
The market simply isn’t ready.

Every cycle gets heavier.
Each one demands more pain, more time, more cleansing.

7. The Bottom Line

I have no illusions.
No fantasies about instant rallies to $300k.
Only realism and patience.

The market will sort itself out.
But by the time the next real bull run begins,
most of those who are still “pedaling downhill” now
won’t have the energy — or the faith — to climb again.

Best regards, EXCAVO