Bitcoin Playbook: محدوده را بهطور پیوسته طی کنید و از افت بهره ببرید
Ox_kali
مشخصات معامله
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۸۹,۰۵۲.۲۱
توضیحات
__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
Bitcoin holds a choppy range after rebounding off mid-range support, with upside still capped by a well-defined HTF ceiling. Event risk is elevated, so liquidity pockets and confirmation matter more than speed.
Momentum: Neutral to bearish tilt within a broad 83,900–94,600 range, capped below 90,350 as intraday trends remain heavy while 1D attempts to stabilize.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF): 88,900 (1H supply), 90,350 (240 Pivot High), 94,635 (D Pivot High).
- Supports (HTF): 85,177 (720 Pivot Low), 84,100–84,260 (ISPD multi‑TF floor), 83,871 (D Pivot Low).
Volumes: Mostly normal across TFs, with moderate 2H spikes acting as an amplifier near resistance.
Multi-timeframe signals: 12H/6H trend down while 1D edges up, arguing for fades into 88,900–90,350 and patience for dip-buys only at the strongest floor confluence near 84.1–84.26k.
Harvest zones: 84,200 (Cluster A) / 79,100–80,800 (Cluster B). Cluster A is the ideal dip-buy for inverse pyramiding, Cluster B is a deeper core zone built from 2H/12H floors if volatility expands.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE, confirms the risk-off tone and raises the bar for breakouts while favoring tactical shorts into HTF resistance.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
The dominant structure is range with a defensive bias, so trade the edges and demand confirmation.
Global bias: Neutral sell below 90,350, key invalidation for downside bias on a sustained daily close above 90,800.
Opportunities:
- Buy the dip only at 84,260–84,100 with a confirmed ≥2H bullish reversal and tight follow‑through rules.
- Breakout buy on clean break and hold above 90,350 with volume, then trail toward 91,800 → 94,600.
- Tactical sell on rejection at 88,900–90,350 with rising volume, add on failed retest.
Risk zones / invalidations: A daily close above 90,800 would invalidate the short‑fade plan, a sustained close below 83,700 would invalidate dip-longs at the cluster.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): CPI today, BoJ decision tomorrow, and a very large options expiry window raise volatility risk and can flip range edges into breakout traps or accelerants.
Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid):
- Palier 1 (12.5%): 84,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry
- Palier 2 (+12.5%): 80,800–79,100 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement
- TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash
- Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF
- Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low or 96h no momentum
- Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
Timeframes are mixed, with daily stabilization but intraday pressure, which supports a range-harvesting stance.
12H/6H: Downtrend under the EMA cloud with lower highs, favoring fades at 88,900–90,350 and keeping risk tight into event risk.
4H/2H/1H: Upswings are stalling into the HTF ceiling, requiring volume confirmation for any breakout above 90,350, otherwise expect mean‑reversion to 87,800 → 85,200.
1D: Up attempt but capped by 90,350 and 94,635, best long-risk spots align with the 84.1–84.26k multi‑TF ISPD floor just above the 83,871 daily pivot low.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro is in the driver’s seat over the next 24–48 hours, and the risk regime is defensive even as ETF flows help at strong floors.
Macro events: CPI today sets DXY and rates tone, BoJ tomorrow can shock global beta, and a very large options expiry window heightens short-term vol. Equities are wobbling, Gold is firm, and oil is bid into geopolitics.
External Macro Analysis: The Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shows a defensive regime with late-cycle tones, credit stress signals align bear, while small caps and semis are conflicted. This supports a cautious technical bias and argues for confirmation on breakouts.
Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF net inflows are supportive on dips, whale outflows reduce on-exchange supply, yet the market remains rangebound and low conviction until the 90,350 cap is reclaimed.
On-chain data: Mixed and fragile, with defensive posture, soft volumes, and elevated skew consistent with range or corrective risk while below key HTF bands.
Expected impact: Macro risk is likely to reinforce a neutral-sell bias, favoring dip-buys at Cluster A with confirmation and short-fades at resistance until a clean breakout resets the regime.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is rangebound with a cautious, event-driven tone that demands disciplined execution at high-confluence zones.
The broader trend is neutral with a bearish tilt while below 90,350. The most relevant setup is buying confirmed reversals at 84.1–84.26k or fading 88,900–90,350 rejections. The key macro factor is the CPI → BoJ → options expiry trifecta that can force expansion. Stay patient, think Tarkov, and only take the fight where you control the angles.
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
Bitcoin holds a choppy range after rebounding off mid-range support, with upside still capped by a well-defined HTF ceiling. Event risk is elevated, so liquidity pockets and confirmation matter more than speed.
Momentum: Neutral to bearish tilt within a broad 83,900–94,600 range, capped below 90,350 as intraday trends remain heavy while 1D attempts to stabilize.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF): 88,900 (1H supply), 90,350 (240 Pivot High), 94,635 (D Pivot High).
- Supports (HTF): 85,177 (720 Pivot Low), 84,100–84,260 (ISPD multi‑TF floor), 83,871 (D Pivot Low).
Volumes: Mostly normal across TFs, with moderate 2H spikes acting as an amplifier near resistance.
Multi-timeframe signals: 12H/6H trend down while 1D edges up, arguing for fades into 88,900–90,350 and patience for dip-buys only at the strongest floor confluence near 84.1–84.26k.
Harvest zones: 84,200 (Cluster A) / 79,100–80,800 (Cluster B). Cluster A is the ideal dip-buy for inverse pyramiding, Cluster B is a deeper core zone built from 2H/12H floors if volatility expands.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE, confirms the risk-off tone and raises the bar for breakouts while favoring tactical shorts into HTF resistance.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
The dominant structure is range with a defensive bias, so trade the edges and demand confirmation.
Global bias: Neutral sell below 90,350, key invalidation for downside bias on a sustained daily close above 90,800.
Opportunities:
- Buy the dip only at 84,260–84,100 with a confirmed ≥2H bullish reversal and tight follow‑through rules.
- Breakout buy on clean break and hold above 90,350 with volume, then trail toward 91,800 → 94,600.
- Tactical sell on rejection at 88,900–90,350 with rising volume, add on failed retest.
Risk zones / invalidations: A daily close above 90,800 would invalidate the short‑fade plan, a sustained close below 83,700 would invalidate dip-longs at the cluster.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): CPI today, BoJ decision tomorrow, and a very large options expiry window raise volatility risk and can flip range edges into breakout traps or accelerants.
Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid):
- Palier 1 (12.5%): 84,200 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry
- Palier 2 (+12.5%): 80,800–79,100 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement
- TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash
- Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF
- Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low or 96h no momentum
- Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
Timeframes are mixed, with daily stabilization but intraday pressure, which supports a range-harvesting stance.
12H/6H: Downtrend under the EMA cloud with lower highs, favoring fades at 88,900–90,350 and keeping risk tight into event risk.
4H/2H/1H: Upswings are stalling into the HTF ceiling, requiring volume confirmation for any breakout above 90,350, otherwise expect mean‑reversion to 87,800 → 85,200.
1D: Up attempt but capped by 90,350 and 94,635, best long-risk spots align with the 84.1–84.26k multi‑TF ISPD floor just above the 83,871 daily pivot low.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro is in the driver’s seat over the next 24–48 hours, and the risk regime is defensive even as ETF flows help at strong floors.
Macro events: CPI today sets DXY and rates tone, BoJ tomorrow can shock global beta, and a very large options expiry window heightens short-term vol. Equities are wobbling, Gold is firm, and oil is bid into geopolitics.
External Macro Analysis: The Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shows a defensive regime with late-cycle tones, credit stress signals align bear, while small caps and semis are conflicted. This supports a cautious technical bias and argues for confirmation on breakouts.
Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF net inflows are supportive on dips, whale outflows reduce on-exchange supply, yet the market remains rangebound and low conviction until the 90,350 cap is reclaimed.
On-chain data: Mixed and fragile, with defensive posture, soft volumes, and elevated skew consistent with range or corrective risk while below key HTF bands.
Expected impact: Macro risk is likely to reinforce a neutral-sell bias, favoring dip-buys at Cluster A with confirmation and short-fades at resistance until a clean breakout resets the regime.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is rangebound with a cautious, event-driven tone that demands disciplined execution at high-confluence zones.
The broader trend is neutral with a bearish tilt while below 90,350. The most relevant setup is buying confirmed reversals at 84.1–84.26k or fading 88,900–90,350 rejections. The key macro factor is the CPI → BoJ → options expiry trifecta that can force expansion. Stay patient, think Tarkov, and only take the fight where you control the angles.
منتخب سردبیر
مشاهده بیشتردستیار هوشمند ارز دیجیتال
ترمینال ترید بایتیکل نرمافزار جامع ترید و سرمایهگذاری در بازار ارز دیجیتال است و امکاناتی مانند دورههای آموزشی ترید و سرمایهگذاری، تریدینگ ویو بدون محدودیت، هوش مصنوعی استراتژی ساز ترید، کلیه دادههای بازارهای مالی شامل دادههای اقتصاد کلان، تحلیل احساسات بازار، تکنیکال و آنچین، اتصال و مدیریت حساب صرافیها و تحلیلهای لحظهای را برای کاربران فراهم میکند.
