ETH پایان موج 5 — آیا آغاز یک بازگشت ABC است؟

ETH/USD – H4 MARKET ANALYSIS
1. Market Structure
- Ethereum has completed a full 5-wave bearish Elliott structure (1–2–3–4–5).
The strongest selling pressure appeared during Wave (3), followed by a final capitulation move at Wave (5).
- After reaching the Wave (5) low, price failed to make a new low and instead began forming a small accumulation base, signaling seller exhaustion.
This confirms that the bearish impulse has ended, and the market is transitioning into a corrective recovery phase.

2. Elliott Wave Context
Wave (5) completion → end of the bearish cycle
Price reaction from the low aligns with Wave A
Current structure suggests a corrective ABC move, not a trend reversal
Expected path:
Wave A: Initial technical rebound
Wave B: Shallow pullback to absorb supply
Wave C: Continuation higher toward resistance

3. Key Technical Zones
Demand Zone: Wave (5) low (critical invalidation level)
Resistance 1: Previous Wave (4) structure
Resistance 2: Higher structural + MA confluence (Wave C target)
As long as price holds above the Wave (5) low, the corrective scenario remains valid.

4. Scenario Outlook
✅ Primary Scenario (High Probability)
Price holds above Wave (5) low
ABC correction continues to unfold
Wave C pushes price higher into resistance
This is a technical rebound, not a macro trend reversal

⚠️ Alternative Scenario
Strong breakdown below Wave (5) low
→ Elliott structure invalidated
→ Bearish trend resumes

5. Trading Bias
Short-term: Buy the dips within the ABC structure
Avoid chasing impulsive moves
Focus on pullbacks during Wave B
Strict risk management is required — this is a corrective phase

Summary
Ethereum has completed a bearish Elliott cycle and is now entering a corrective ABC recovery.
As long as the Wave (5) low holds, short-term upside remains favored.