SOL تا 50$
Faisal-Nagi
مشخصات معامله
نوع معامله:
فروش
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۱۲۲.۷۶
توضیحات
This chart shows **SOLUSDT on the weekly timeframe**, which is used to assess long-term trend structure rather than short-term volatility. After a strong impulsive rally from the 2023 lows, Solana completed a clear **five-wave advance**, followed by a transition into a corrective phase. Price is now trading **below the weekly EMA**, a key trend filter that historically separates bullish expansion from corrective or bearish regimes. Loss of the weekly EMA often signals that upside momentum has weakened and that the market is shifting from trend continuation into consolidation or distribution.
Structurally, the current price action resembles a **corrective ABC pattern** rather than an impulsive move. Wave *a* formed the initial breakdown from the highs, wave *b* produced a lower high near the prior resistance zone, and price is now compressing toward the ascending trendline, suggesting a potential wave *c* decline. The inability to reclaim the EMA and the repeated rejections from prior resistance indicate that buyers are becoming less aggressive, a common characteristic during early-to-mid bear market phases. The horizontal level around the 0.236 retracement has acted as temporary support, but it remains technically weak unless volume expansion confirms acceptance.
From a historical perspective, **Solana has experienced extreme bear market drawdowns**. During the 2021–2022 cycle, SOL declined by approximately **95% from its all-time high**, significantly more severe than Bitcoin’s average bear market drawdowns. This reflects SOL’s higher beta and sensitivity to liquidity conditions. In prior bear phases, SOL tended to retrace toward deeper Fibonacci levels, particularly the **0.5 to 0.618 retracement zones**, before establishing durable long-term bottoms. The projected downside scenario toward the mid-$40 to $50 area would align with these historical retracement behaviors and with broader risk-off conditions.
In summary, this chart suggests Solana is in a **macro corrective or bear-market consolidation phase**, not a confirmed trend reversal. As long as price remains below the weekly EMA and fails to reclaim prior resistance, rallies are statistically more likely to be corrective rather than impulsive. Bear markets in SOL have historically been marked by sharp volatility, deep retracements, and extended basing periods before sustainable recoveries occur. This makes **patience, confirmation, and risk control critical**, as meaningful trend continuation typically only resumes once higher lows form above key moving averages and volume re-enters the market decisively.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Structurally, the current price action resembles a **corrective ABC pattern** rather than an impulsive move. Wave *a* formed the initial breakdown from the highs, wave *b* produced a lower high near the prior resistance zone, and price is now compressing toward the ascending trendline, suggesting a potential wave *c* decline. The inability to reclaim the EMA and the repeated rejections from prior resistance indicate that buyers are becoming less aggressive, a common characteristic during early-to-mid bear market phases. The horizontal level around the 0.236 retracement has acted as temporary support, but it remains technically weak unless volume expansion confirms acceptance.
From a historical perspective, **Solana has experienced extreme bear market drawdowns**. During the 2021–2022 cycle, SOL declined by approximately **95% from its all-time high**, significantly more severe than Bitcoin’s average bear market drawdowns. This reflects SOL’s higher beta and sensitivity to liquidity conditions. In prior bear phases, SOL tended to retrace toward deeper Fibonacci levels, particularly the **0.5 to 0.618 retracement zones**, before establishing durable long-term bottoms. The projected downside scenario toward the mid-$40 to $50 area would align with these historical retracement behaviors and with broader risk-off conditions.
In summary, this chart suggests Solana is in a **macro corrective or bear-market consolidation phase**, not a confirmed trend reversal. As long as price remains below the weekly EMA and fails to reclaim prior resistance, rallies are statistically more likely to be corrective rather than impulsive. Bear markets in SOL have historically been marked by sharp volatility, deep retracements, and extended basing periods before sustainable recoveries occur. This makes **patience, confirmation, and risk control critical**, as meaningful trend continuation typically only resumes once higher lows form above key moving averages and volume re-enters the market decisively.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
منتخب سردبیر
مشاهده بیشتردستیار هوشمند ارز دیجیتال
ترمینال ترید بایتیکل نرمافزار جامع ترید و سرمایهگذاری در بازار ارز دیجیتال است و امکاناتی مانند دورههای آموزشی ترید و سرمایهگذاری، تریدینگ ویو بدون محدودیت، هوش مصنوعی استراتژی ساز ترید، کلیه دادههای بازارهای مالی شامل دادههای اقتصاد کلان، تحلیل احساسات بازار، تکنیکال و آنچین، اتصال و مدیریت حساب صرافیها و تحلیلهای لحظهای را برای کاربران فراهم میکند.
