سقوط اضافی 50% BTC تا حدود 30-40k دلار در آستانه تحقق است؟ - Feb26

** Blackrock transfer millions of dollars worth (for now) of Bitcoin to Coinbase. **

** Fear and greed at historic lows. **

Why pay $66k today when you can pay $33k tomorrow?!



This idea is not spontaneous, an influencer video is shared with me, “Steve says a 3 day death cross forecasts a mega crash!”, what do you think Ww?

For those of you that don’t know, a 3 day death cross is when a 50 SMA crosses down a 200 SMA AND price action below the 200 SMA.

The above chart is irrefutable. As Steve points out, there’s never been a false signal. A 3 day death cross is due to print on February 27th. If you look left, you will see:

1. Price action collapses on average 50% sometimes more after the cross.
2. Price action will take at least 100 days to form a base, and up to 200+ before a recovery begins.
3. All this talk of a bullish 2026 is well and truly cancelled considering points 1 and 2.
4. If you’re in agreement with this influencer, you’re fully out of the market waiting for $40k and below.

The Bitcoin / Euro pair printed a 3 day death cross earlier this week.

Bitcoin / Euro 3 day


Zoom out and the story is similar to the dollar charts with up to 50% corrections on the Bitcoin / Euro pair with 200+ days before a recovery is seen.




Who says markets cannot be deterministic?

This is about as certain as it gets. Right? Moving averages for the win, right?




Do you remember those two moving averages from the “pi-cycle” indicator that everyone including influencers was using to forecast market top the never came? After all each and every market top beforehand was forecast with a pi-cycle alert …. that was until the market top last October at $126k.

Opps..



The last cycle top was not forecast by the pi-cycle top, who is to say the next cycle bottom will now be forecast by the 3 day death cross?



Does Ww agree with the 3 day death cross theory?

no.

Why not?

Moving averages do not forecast future price action. As stupid as this sounds, they inform you about past levels of support and resistance as measured across a known window of time.

I tell students to MASTER support and resistance. Don’t just get ‘good, really become a master at it. It is not difficult, we have a saying in German “Übung macht den Meister”, meaning practice makes perfect, says Deepl, but actually it translates to Practice makes the Master.

Let’s have an example. You’ll love this.

On the 2 week charts below historical 3 day death crosses are indicated by blue vertical lines. The year of each identified. With me? Of course you are, he keeps it simple.

December 2014 , what do you see at the time of the 3 day death cross? Let me tell you:

1. Broken market structure, i.e. failed support
2. Support test (green box, notice how the green box is almost a full year of resistance before the 2014 breakout?


December 2014



November 2018 , wait a minute.. what kind of sorcery is this?
At the same time as the 3 day death cross, support failed and corrected to test the next area of past resistance for a support test. It confirmed. 2022 is going to be different, right?

November 2018



May 2022 Just as with the previous corrections, market structure failures, support and resistance test are absolute in determining:

1. Is the market about to correct further? A break of structure? Yes. A support level below to be tested that was previously resistance? Yes
2. These tests were all on and area of past extended past resistance lasting up to 200 days. That is significant market structure.
3. All these tests occurred at the time of the 3 day death cross, however that does not make the cross more important than support and resistance. Support will always dominate.

May 2022



** Now take a mental snapshot of the the previous years **


February 2026 . Are you ready for this? This level of Dazzle is supernova, get your sunnies on.

Facts:

1. Price action broke market structure last month in January, before the 3 day death cross. Unlike previous years.
2. Just like previous year, price action is already on support! A whole year of past resistance,


February 2026






Conclusions

The headlines write themselves, influencers talk with certainty and the subject never again discussed when unconfirmed. History tells us a 50% crash with 100–200 days of basing is next. Bullish 2026 cancelled.

Sounds deterministic, doesn’t it? But markets are not deterministic. They are contextual, probabilistic.

Moving averages do not forecast future price action. They describe where price has been. They are mathematical reflections of historical data, nothing more.


Every previous 3-day death cross shared something in common:

1. Market structure had already failed.
2. Major support had already broken.
3. Price was collapsing into empty space.

The next meaningful support sat far below, often at prior multi-month resistance. In 2014, 2018, and 2022:

1. Structure broke.
2. Support failed.
3. Price corrected toward a clearly defined historical resistance-turned-support zone.

That zone required 100–200+ days of rebuilding. The moving average cross did not cause the crash, It confirmed damage that had already occurred.



February 2026 What’s Different?

Now here’s the part nobody shouting “mega crash” wants to discuss:

1. Market structure broke before the death cross.
2. Price is not collapsing into open air.
3. Price is already sitting on a full year of prior resistance, now acting as support.
4. The support test is happening into structure, not away from it.

That is not the same environment as 2014, 2018, or 2022, It’s structurally different. And structure always outweighs a lagging moving average.

If you are fully out of the market waiting for $40k, you are betting that:

1. Structure fails further.
2. This support does not hold.
3. History repeats mechanically rather than contextually.

If you're using support and resistance, you're buying rather than selling with the 90%.

Is it possible price action continues to correct as influencers report? Sure.
Is it probable? Naaaah.

Ww







===============================================
Disclaimer
This is analysis, not prophecy. Charts are probabilities, not promises.
Yes, BlackRock can move coins to Coinbase. Yes, influencers can shout “death cross” like it’s the end times. That doesn’t make it financial advice.

Moving averages describe the past. They don’t predict the future.
If it crashes, not my fault. If it rips, also not my fault.
Manage your risk. Blame yourself.