DOGEUSDT — شکست قیمت یا رالی ترمیمی؟

Bias: Bearish until structure shifts
Location: Multi-month support compression

This is mostly an informational post. BE PATIENT with the trade. do NOT short blindly right now.

Either: Let it break 0.095 clean OR Let it bounce to 0.12 or poc- and fail .

- My main concern is POC lost decisively! When value shifts lower, price tends to seek next high-volume acceptance zone. That next meaningful liquidity pocket sits around: 0.06–0.07, Then deeper around 0.03–0.04. Usually the length of move above POC will equal to the move below. And if we break below the multi-year long RED trend line, the bear flag will play out and the target for that is all the way down.


So as you can see Doge is at a very critical spot. Watch carefully to the price action in next few weeks. Price action is compressing at structure, which usually resolves with big expansion. price is now trapped between:
- Descending resistance (~0.115–0.125) & Multi-year trendline support (~0.085–0.09).


My Observations...
- POC lost! Price lost it decisively.
- Printed a clear series of lower highs
- Lost the 0.15–0.17 value area (prior POC)
- Transitioned from distribution into markdown
- Compressed into rising macro support (~0.085–0.095)
- It’s a multi-year support line from 2020. We are testing it now. The more times a trendline is tested, the weaker it becomes.
- NOTE: This is not first touch. This is late-stage.
-


2 Scenarios, both will lead to a long term bearish setup.

1) IF Breakdown Continuation...

Trigger:
4H close below 0.095 with body expansion (not just wick)
Entry:
0.093–0.095 (break or break + weak retest)

Stop:
0.104 (above last 4H lower high)

Targets:
TP1 → 0.082
TP2 → 0.075
TP3 → 0.060


2) If price bounces first: Watch out for the POC control. Its going to be hard for it to break that level. Then probably can short then.





Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately before entering any trade. Past performance does not guarantee future results.