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Bitcoin Supply in Profit (Total), which shows the amount of BTC in profit. I looked at the minimum and maximum values ​​for each cycle:

2015: min value = 5.20 million supply in profit, max value = 12.03 million supply in profit

2017: min value = 6.93 million supply in profit, max value = 16.7 million supply in profit

2021: min value = 8.59 million supply in profit, max value = 18.80 million supply in profit

This metric currently peaks at 19.89 million supply in profit. What's the correlation between these data points?

Pattern analysis
1. Supply in Profit dynamics at the bottom of each cycle
2015 Bottom: 5.20M BTC -> Drop from Peak: -56.7% (from 12.03M)
2019 Bottom: 6.93M BTC -> Drop from Peak: -58.5% (from 16.70M)
2022 Bottom: 8.59M BTC -> Drop from Peak: -54.3% (from 18.80M)

Average Drop: 56.5%
Median Drop: 56.7%
2. Structural trend: Floor Supply in Profit increases with each cycle
2015: 5.20M -> baseline
2019: 6.93M -> +33.3% to previous bottom
2022: 8.59M -> +23.9% to previous bottom
Average bottom increase: 28.6% per cycle. Declining growth rate. With each cycle, more and more long-term holders accumulate with a very low cost base, who do not sell even at the bottom.

Forecast model
-Method 1: Percentage Drop from Current Peak
Current peak: 19.89M BTC

Applying the average decline of -56.5%:
19.89M × (1 - 0.565) = 19.89M × 0.435 = 8.65M BTC

Applying the minimum decline of -54.3% (2022):
19.89M × 0.457 = 9.09M BTC

Applying the maximum decline of -58.5% (2019):
19.89M × 0.415 = 8.25M BTC
-Method 2: Extrapolation of structural growth of the bottom
2015 -> 2019: +1.73M BTC
2019 -> 2022: +1.66M BTC
Trend: ~+1.55-1.60M BTC in the next cycle (fading)

2022 bottom: 8.59M + 1.57M = 10.16M BTC
-Method 3: Share of Total Circulating Supply
2015: 5.20M / 13.5M = 38.5% in profit
2019: 6.93M / 17.1M = 40.5% in profit
2022: 8.59M / 19.6M = 43.8% in profit

Trend is growing (+2-3% per cycle)
2025 bottom: 46-48% of 20.0M = 9.2M - 9.6M BTC

When Supply in Profit enters the 8.5M - 9.5M BTC range, it will be a statistically confirmed cyclical bottom. A reversal will be confirmed by the metric's recovery above 10M BTC with price stabilization. Historically, it takes 12-16 months from peak to bottom, which, with a peak in October 2025, points to Q4 2026.