BTC 83,324 Is the Quarterly Trigger, 63,500 Stays the Weekly one

On 21 August I published the CME quarterly trigger at 83,925, 83,324 on Bitstamp, and 61,782 as the level that kills the quarterly momentum once a signal fires. The three-month bar is live and up about a third of its range with five weeks left on it. Nothing has fired yet.

The 79,625 weekly high sat short of the trigger. Two things people usually get wrong here. That level belongs to the September quarter bar and dies with it, so it is a trigger rather than a floor and it does not carry into October. If the quarter runs out without taking it, the next quarter prints its own trigger, higher up, most likely from a higher low. A quarter that ends without firing just means a later entry.

Below the quarterly test the weekly is the live book, and its invalidation is 63,500 spot Bitstamp. That number switched off on 12 August and back on on the 17th, and a retrace that holds above it is a buy this week or next. Two independent books, two levels, one week that runs through Jackson Hole and lands the July PCE print on Wednesday morning.

Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.