Solana 1D Update: Longer update with thoughts
OnchainDecoded
مشخصات معامله
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۸۵.۰۳
توضیحات
Solana remains in a well defined daily downtrend channel, but price is beginning to show early signs of attempting a local bottom formation.
After losing the 125.50 support, momentum accelerated sharply to the downside, with SOL flushing into the low 70s before producing a strong reaction wick. That spike lower suggests forced selling and liquidity clearing rather than controlled distribution. Since then, price has stabilized in the mid 80s, attempting to base.
Structurally, SOL is still trading inside the descending channel, making lower highs and lower lows. The key question now is whether this recent flush marked a capitulation low or simply the midpoint before continuation toward deeper channel support.
Key levels to monitor:
• 84 to 88: Current reaction zone. This is short term balance, not confirmed support yet.
• 100 to 105: First meaningful resistance. A move back above this region would break the sequence of lower highs on the lower time frames.
• 125.50: Major prior support turned resistance. Reclaiming this level would significantly shift the daily structure.
• 70 to 75: Recent capitulation low. Loss of this region likely opens continuation toward deeper channel support.
• 44 to 50: High time frame demand and stronger historical support. If the channel fully plays out, this becomes a magnet.
Momentum context:
Given the velocity of the selloff, daily RSI is likely near oversold conditions. When markets enter this state, they often either:
Form a sideways accumulation range with higher lows developing.
Produce a reflex bounce into resistance before rolling over for one final flush.
Right now, SOL is compressing after the initial bounce. That compression is constructive if it begins printing higher lows above 75. However, without reclaiming at least the 100 region, this remains corrective within a broader downtrend.
Bullish scenario:
If SOL can build acceptance above 90 and break above 100 with expanding volume, it increases the probability that the recent low was a capitulation event. A channel breakout would confirm a structural shift and potentially target the 120 to 125 region.
Bearish scenario:
Failure to hold 75 followed by a decisive breakdown from this consolidation likely leads to continuation along the lower boundary of the descending channel, with 50 to 60 becoming a realistic test zone.
Psychologically, markets often attempt to find equilibrium after aggressive liquidation. The current structure suggests SOL is probing for that equilibrium, but confirmation requires either a clear higher low sequence or a break of descending resistance.
Conclusion:
SOL is attempting to carve out a bottom, but it has not yet confirmed one. Until the descending structure is invalidated, rallies are technically counter trend. The next several daily closes will be critical in determining whether this becomes a base or just a pause before another leg lower.
After losing the 125.50 support, momentum accelerated sharply to the downside, with SOL flushing into the low 70s before producing a strong reaction wick. That spike lower suggests forced selling and liquidity clearing rather than controlled distribution. Since then, price has stabilized in the mid 80s, attempting to base.
Structurally, SOL is still trading inside the descending channel, making lower highs and lower lows. The key question now is whether this recent flush marked a capitulation low or simply the midpoint before continuation toward deeper channel support.
Key levels to monitor:
• 84 to 88: Current reaction zone. This is short term balance, not confirmed support yet.
• 100 to 105: First meaningful resistance. A move back above this region would break the sequence of lower highs on the lower time frames.
• 125.50: Major prior support turned resistance. Reclaiming this level would significantly shift the daily structure.
• 70 to 75: Recent capitulation low. Loss of this region likely opens continuation toward deeper channel support.
• 44 to 50: High time frame demand and stronger historical support. If the channel fully plays out, this becomes a magnet.
Momentum context:
Given the velocity of the selloff, daily RSI is likely near oversold conditions. When markets enter this state, they often either:
Form a sideways accumulation range with higher lows developing.
Produce a reflex bounce into resistance before rolling over for one final flush.
Right now, SOL is compressing after the initial bounce. That compression is constructive if it begins printing higher lows above 75. However, without reclaiming at least the 100 region, this remains corrective within a broader downtrend.
Bullish scenario:
If SOL can build acceptance above 90 and break above 100 with expanding volume, it increases the probability that the recent low was a capitulation event. A channel breakout would confirm a structural shift and potentially target the 120 to 125 region.
Bearish scenario:
Failure to hold 75 followed by a decisive breakdown from this consolidation likely leads to continuation along the lower boundary of the descending channel, with 50 to 60 becoming a realistic test zone.
Psychologically, markets often attempt to find equilibrium after aggressive liquidation. The current structure suggests SOL is probing for that equilibrium, but confirmation requires either a clear higher low sequence or a break of descending resistance.
Conclusion:
SOL is attempting to carve out a bottom, but it has not yet confirmed one. Until the descending structure is invalidated, rallies are technically counter trend. The next several daily closes will be critical in determining whether this becomes a base or just a pause before another leg lower.
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ترمینال ترید بایتیکل نرمافزار جامع ترید و سرمایهگذاری در بازار ارز دیجیتال است و امکاناتی مانند دورههای آموزشی ترید و سرمایهگذاری، تریدینگ ویو بدون محدودیت، هوش مصنوعی استراتژی ساز ترید، کلیه دادههای بازارهای مالی شامل دادههای اقتصاد کلان، تحلیل احساسات بازار، تکنیکال و آنچین، اتصال و مدیریت حساب صرافیها و تحلیلهای لحظهای را برای کاربران فراهم میکند.
