تقاطع MACD در ترس شدید — بازگشت زودهنگام یا Dead Cat Bounce؟
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قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۱,۹۶۱.۶۴
توضیحات
ETH $1,982 | تقاطع MACD در ترس شدید -- آیا بازگشت زودهنگام است یا Dead Cat Bounce؟
February 17, 2026
Fear & Greed at 10. ETH down from $2,188 (VWAP) to $1,982, a clean 9% drop. But something just happened: the MACD histogram flipped positive. A bullish crossover in extreme fear with a mean-reverting Hurst exponent. This is either the early signal everyone misses, or a trap before the next leg down.
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WHY ETH, WHY NOW
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Two things make ETH worth watching right now:
1. The MACD crossover. MACD at -3.18 just crossed above the signal line at -3.28. Histogram turned positive at +0.10. It's tiny, but it's there. In a mean-reversion regime (Hurst 0.260), these early divergences often lead before price follows.
2. Relative strength vs BTC. BTC's RSI is 43.9 (oversold lean). ETH's RSI is 53.9 (neutral, balanced). BTC's MACD is bearish and expanding (-77.1 histogram). ETH's MACD just crossed bullish. ETH is showing strength where BTC is showing weakness.
The setup: a fresh bullish crossover in extreme market fear, with RSI neutral and room to run. The risk: price is still below VWAP, macro is risk-off, and BTC correlation can drag ETH lower regardless of its own technicals.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
DERIVATIVES MARKET
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The derivatives picture is quiet:
● Taker buy ratio at 50.9% -- balanced, slight buyer lean
● Funding rate data unavailable -- cannot confirm crowding
● Open interest data unavailable -- no OI divergence signals
● Recent liquidations unknown -- no forced selling cascade
The 50.9% taker buy ratio is notable. It's not aggressive (BTC is 49.1%), but it's above 50%. Buyers are slightly more aggressive than sellers at these levels. In extreme fear with a MACD crossover, that's a tell.
Compare to BTC where taker buy is 49.1% (balanced). ETH is showing marginally more demand.
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REGIME & TREND
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Regime: MEAN-REVERSION (Hurst 0.260)
● Hurst exponent at 0.260 -- strong mean-reversion signal (H < 0.5 = anti-trend)
● Volume z-score at 1.81 -- normal volume, no panic
● Taker buy ratio at 50.9% -- balanced with slight buyer lean
● Bollinger %B at 0.69 -- upper half of the band
The regime says mean reversion. The downtrend is fighting the regime structure. Historically, when Hurst is this low (<0.3) and price hits extremes, the bounce is sharp but temporary. This is a scalp setup, not a position trade.
The MACD crossover in a mean-reversion regime is the setup. The question is whether it leads or fails.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
TECHNICALS
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BINANCE:ETHUSDT at ~$1,982 on Binance Futures.
● RSI(14) at 53.9 -- neutral, balanced momentum
● MACD histogram at +0.10 -- bullish crossover, fresh
● Bollinger %B at 0.69 -- upper half of bands
● Bollinger bandwidth at 2.74% -- normal, not squeezed
● Price below VWAP ($2,188) -- 9.4% below institutional cost
● ATR at 1.23% -- healthy daily range
● Hurst at 0.260 -- mean-reverting
This is a clean bullish crossover setup. MACD just flipped positive, RSI is neutral with room to run (53.9 can go to 70+ before overbought), and price is in the upper half of the Bollinger band. The only red flag: below VWAP by 9.4%.
VWAP at $2,188 is the major resistance. Until ETH reclaims that level, the institutions are still net sellers.
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KEY LEVELS
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Support:
● $1,982 -- Bollinger midline (current price)
● $1,954 -- Bollinger lower band
● $1,900 -- psychological support
Resistance:
● $2,009 -- Bollinger upper band
● $2,188 -- VWAP (major institutional resistance)
● $2,300 -- psychological resistance
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
THE SETUP
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Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
This is an early reversal setup. The MACD crossover in extreme fear (10) with neutral RSI and mean-reversion regime creates a statistical edge. But macro is risk-off and price is below VWAP.
Entry zone: $1,950-1,980 (support + crossover confluence)
Targets:
● T1: $2,050 (Bollinger upper band area, +3.6%)
● T2: $2,188 (VWAP reclaim, +10.9%)
Stop: $1,930 (below Bollinger lower band, -2.6%)
R:R to T1: ~1:1.4
R:R to T2: ~1:4.2
Position size: 2-3% account risk
Conditions:
1. MACD histogram stays positive (no immediate re-cross)
2. Price holds above $1,954 (Bollinger lower band)
3. Taker buy ratio stays above 50% (demand confirmation)
4. Exit at T1 ($2,050) or VWAP ($2,188), do not hold through resistance
Important: ETH has 57.3% annualized volatility vs BTC's 37.2%. That means targets hit faster, but stops get hit faster too. This is a scalp, not a swing. Take profit at resistance.
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COMPARISON: ETH VS BTC
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Why ETH looks stronger than BTC right now:
ETH:
● RSI: 53.9 (neutral)
● MACD: +0.10 (bullish crossover)
● Taker buy: 50.9% (buyer lean)
● Signal: cautiously bullish
BTC:
● RSI: 43.9 (oversold lean)
● MACD: -77.1 (bearish, expanding)
● Taker buy: 49.1% (balanced)
● Signal: bearish
ETH has better momentum, better MACD, and marginally better demand. If BTC stabilizes or bounces, ETH likely outperforms. If BTC breaks $66K, ETH follows down regardless.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
RISKS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
● BTC correlation is dominant. If BTC breaks $66K, ETH goes to $1,800 regardless of its own setup.
● Macro is risk-off. VIX up 19%, equities falling. Alts get hit hardest in risk-off environments.
● Price is 9.4% below VWAP. That's overhead supply from underwater longs. VWAP at $2,188 is a major wall.
● MACD crossover is fresh but tiny (histogram +0.10). Could easily re-cross bearish if momentum fades.
● No funding/OI data means we can't confirm if shorts are crowded or longs are capitulating.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
BOTTOM LINE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ETH just flipped a bullish MACD crossover in extreme fear (10) with neutral RSI and a mean-reversion regime. This is the early signal that traders miss because it feels wrong to buy in fear. But the relative strength vs BTC is real: ETH's RSI is 10 points higher, MACD is bullish while BTC's is bearish, and demand is marginally stronger.
The trade is straightforward: enter $1,950-1,980, stop below $1,930, target $2,050 first, then $2,188 (VWAP). This is a scalp, not a swing. The mean-reversion regime says take profit at resistance, not hold for the moon.
Risk is BTC correlation. If BTC breaks $66K, this setup dies. If BTC stabilizes, ETH outperforms.
Manage your risk. NFA.
Data collected February 17, 2026.
February 17, 2026
Fear & Greed at 10. ETH down from $2,188 (VWAP) to $1,982, a clean 9% drop. But something just happened: the MACD histogram flipped positive. A bullish crossover in extreme fear with a mean-reverting Hurst exponent. This is either the early signal everyone misses, or a trap before the next leg down.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHY ETH, WHY NOW
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Two things make ETH worth watching right now:
1. The MACD crossover. MACD at -3.18 just crossed above the signal line at -3.28. Histogram turned positive at +0.10. It's tiny, but it's there. In a mean-reversion regime (Hurst 0.260), these early divergences often lead before price follows.
2. Relative strength vs BTC. BTC's RSI is 43.9 (oversold lean). ETH's RSI is 53.9 (neutral, balanced). BTC's MACD is bearish and expanding (-77.1 histogram). ETH's MACD just crossed bullish. ETH is showing strength where BTC is showing weakness.
The setup: a fresh bullish crossover in extreme market fear, with RSI neutral and room to run. The risk: price is still below VWAP, macro is risk-off, and BTC correlation can drag ETH lower regardless of its own technicals.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
DERIVATIVES MARKET
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
The derivatives picture is quiet:
● Taker buy ratio at 50.9% -- balanced, slight buyer lean
● Funding rate data unavailable -- cannot confirm crowding
● Open interest data unavailable -- no OI divergence signals
● Recent liquidations unknown -- no forced selling cascade
The 50.9% taker buy ratio is notable. It's not aggressive (BTC is 49.1%), but it's above 50%. Buyers are slightly more aggressive than sellers at these levels. In extreme fear with a MACD crossover, that's a tell.
Compare to BTC where taker buy is 49.1% (balanced). ETH is showing marginally more demand.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
REGIME & TREND
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Regime: MEAN-REVERSION (Hurst 0.260)
● Hurst exponent at 0.260 -- strong mean-reversion signal (H < 0.5 = anti-trend)
● Volume z-score at 1.81 -- normal volume, no panic
● Taker buy ratio at 50.9% -- balanced with slight buyer lean
● Bollinger %B at 0.69 -- upper half of the band
The regime says mean reversion. The downtrend is fighting the regime structure. Historically, when Hurst is this low (<0.3) and price hits extremes, the bounce is sharp but temporary. This is a scalp setup, not a position trade.
The MACD crossover in a mean-reversion regime is the setup. The question is whether it leads or fails.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
TECHNICALS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
BINANCE:ETHUSDT at ~$1,982 on Binance Futures.
● RSI(14) at 53.9 -- neutral, balanced momentum
● MACD histogram at +0.10 -- bullish crossover, fresh
● Bollinger %B at 0.69 -- upper half of bands
● Bollinger bandwidth at 2.74% -- normal, not squeezed
● Price below VWAP ($2,188) -- 9.4% below institutional cost
● ATR at 1.23% -- healthy daily range
● Hurst at 0.260 -- mean-reverting
This is a clean bullish crossover setup. MACD just flipped positive, RSI is neutral with room to run (53.9 can go to 70+ before overbought), and price is in the upper half of the Bollinger band. The only red flag: below VWAP by 9.4%.
VWAP at $2,188 is the major resistance. Until ETH reclaims that level, the institutions are still net sellers.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
KEY LEVELS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Support:
● $1,982 -- Bollinger midline (current price)
● $1,954 -- Bollinger lower band
● $1,900 -- psychological support
Resistance:
● $2,009 -- Bollinger upper band
● $2,188 -- VWAP (major institutional resistance)
● $2,300 -- psychological resistance
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
THE SETUP
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
This is an early reversal setup. The MACD crossover in extreme fear (10) with neutral RSI and mean-reversion regime creates a statistical edge. But macro is risk-off and price is below VWAP.
Entry zone: $1,950-1,980 (support + crossover confluence)
Targets:
● T1: $2,050 (Bollinger upper band area, +3.6%)
● T2: $2,188 (VWAP reclaim, +10.9%)
Stop: $1,930 (below Bollinger lower band, -2.6%)
R:R to T1: ~1:1.4
R:R to T2: ~1:4.2
Position size: 2-3% account risk
Conditions:
1. MACD histogram stays positive (no immediate re-cross)
2. Price holds above $1,954 (Bollinger lower band)
3. Taker buy ratio stays above 50% (demand confirmation)
4. Exit at T1 ($2,050) or VWAP ($2,188), do not hold through resistance
Important: ETH has 57.3% annualized volatility vs BTC's 37.2%. That means targets hit faster, but stops get hit faster too. This is a scalp, not a swing. Take profit at resistance.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
COMPARISON: ETH VS BTC
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Why ETH looks stronger than BTC right now:
ETH:
● RSI: 53.9 (neutral)
● MACD: +0.10 (bullish crossover)
● Taker buy: 50.9% (buyer lean)
● Signal: cautiously bullish
BTC:
● RSI: 43.9 (oversold lean)
● MACD: -77.1 (bearish, expanding)
● Taker buy: 49.1% (balanced)
● Signal: bearish
ETH has better momentum, better MACD, and marginally better demand. If BTC stabilizes or bounces, ETH likely outperforms. If BTC breaks $66K, ETH follows down regardless.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
RISKS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
● BTC correlation is dominant. If BTC breaks $66K, ETH goes to $1,800 regardless of its own setup.
● Macro is risk-off. VIX up 19%, equities falling. Alts get hit hardest in risk-off environments.
● Price is 9.4% below VWAP. That's overhead supply from underwater longs. VWAP at $2,188 is a major wall.
● MACD crossover is fresh but tiny (histogram +0.10). Could easily re-cross bearish if momentum fades.
● No funding/OI data means we can't confirm if shorts are crowded or longs are capitulating.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
BOTTOM LINE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ETH just flipped a bullish MACD crossover in extreme fear (10) with neutral RSI and a mean-reversion regime. This is the early signal that traders miss because it feels wrong to buy in fear. But the relative strength vs BTC is real: ETH's RSI is 10 points higher, MACD is bullish while BTC's is bearish, and demand is marginally stronger.
The trade is straightforward: enter $1,950-1,980, stop below $1,930, target $2,050 first, then $2,188 (VWAP). This is a scalp, not a swing. The mean-reversion regime says take profit at resistance, not hold for the moon.
Risk is BTC correlation. If BTC breaks $66K, this setup dies. If BTC stabilizes, ETH outperforms.
Manage your risk. NFA.
Data collected February 17, 2026.
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