Volume Structure: نمودار داستانی از نهادها را روایت می‌کند

Volume Structure
The chart tells an unambiguous story of institutional distribution. From the January highs near $148, SOL has lost approximately 44% of its value — a controlled, sustained selloff with no structural evidence of absorption. The AVWAP (purple line) has been declining in a continuous slope since mid-January, confirming that the institutional cost basis is being reset lower on every swing. Price has not reclaimed AVWAP at any point since the regime flipped — the classic hallmark of a confirmed bearish regime where rallies are institutional distribution events, not accumulation.

The POC sits at approximately $84–$85, and the current price of $82.60 is trading -2.98% below it. Critically, the IVT Lite reads In Value Area: YES — meaning price has not yet broken decisively below the volume node. This is a nuanced detail. The POC zone at $84–85 is acting as a ceiling, not a floor. What was institutional cost basis has become institutional supply. Each rally attempt (marked by the red X signals on the chart) has been capped precisely at that overhead POC cluster, and sellers have been consistent. Three failed tests of that $88–92 zone, and now price is revisiting the low end of the value area.
The volume profile on the left side of the chart shows heavy blue volume nodes clustered in the $83–88 range — this is where the majority of post-crash volume has transacted. This concentration creates a contested zone rather than clean support. When price oscillates within a high-volume node without a directional impulse, it typically resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend. The prevailing trend is bearish.

Critical Levels
The horizontal red line near $84–85 is the structural pivot. It has been tested repeatedly since February 7th and is now being tested again at $82.60. A confirmed 4H close below this zone shifts the regime into acceleration mode — the air pocket below $80 toward the $76 recent wicks offers limited volume support until approximately $72–68.
To the upside, the first meaningful resistance cluster sits at $88–92. The AVWAP is now approaching $97–100 on this timeframe — a level that would require a 20%+ rally simply to reach the institutional benchmark. That is not a buy signal; it is a measure of how far the regime has deteriorated.

Cantillon Sequence Context
Consistent with the COIN analysis, SOL sits at the extreme end of the Cantillon flow sequence. Risk assets — particularly high-beta crypto — are the last to receive liquidity flows. Until Bitcoin stabilizes and equities reclaim their own AVWAP regimes, SOL will remain under distribution pressure regardless of narrative. The -45% VWAP deviation noted in the COIN report for SOL confirms the severity of institutional distance from fair value.

Regime Verdict: BEARISH — No reversal evidence present
The appropriate IVT stance remains observation. No stability, no volume compression building a base, and AVWAP sloping lower. The regime changes when price reclaims the AVWAP and volume structure builds stability. Neither condition is met today. Sell-the-rally discipline applies until the Terminal confirms otherwise.