DOGE: Wedge Squeeze Play
MonoCoinSignal
مشخصات معامله
نوع معامله:
فروش
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۰.۱۳۰۴
توضیحات
We're sitting at the decision point. DOGE has compressed into a textbook converging wedge with 11 touches on descending resistance, and price is literally touching that line at $0.1300 right now. The structure has already broken bearish (CHoCH confirmed), and with volume down 83%, the setup favors continuation over reversal. This is a patience game, the wedge resolves soon, but forcing the trade before confirmation is how traders get chopped up.
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Converging wedge apex: Descending resistance from $0.1400 (11 touches) meets ascending support at $0.1200 - $0.01 squeeze zone
• Structure broken: CHoCH Bearish confirmed with lower high formation, market structure favors downside
• Bearish order block: $0.1288-$0.1330 acting as supply zone, price testing the top right now
• Moving averages stacked bearish: Price below EMA20 ($0.1304), EMA50 ($0.1319), and EMA200 ($0.1442)
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• Volume collapse: $121M vs $728M average (83% drop), zero conviction behind breakout attempts
• Price trading in discount zone but unable to reclaim premium
• CHoCH Bearish with lower highs, structure thesis intact
Bullish Signals:
• MACD bullish crossover (0.0002 vs 0.0000), marginal at best
• Price above HMA55 ($0.1292) and Bollinger middle band ($0.1296)
• Lower wicks (34.2%) exceeding upper wicks (14.5%) on current candle
The Conflict:
RSI at 58.3 sits in neutral territory, not oversold enough to signal reversal, but not overbought either. The single-candle wick analysis shows buying pressure, but broader structure with CHoCH bearish matters more than one bar.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Wedge Rejection (Higher Probability)
• Trigger: Rejection at bearish OB $0.1330 with descending resistance hold
• Entry: Scale in $0.1300-$0.1310 on rejection wicks
• Target 1: $0.1263 (unfilled bullish FVG, imbalance needs filling)
• Target 2: $0.1198 (swing low + ascending support + bullish OB zone)
• Stop: 4H close above $0.1330 (bearish OB breaks, thesis invalidated)
🟢 Scenario B: Wedge Breakout (Requires Confirmation)
• Trigger: Strong 4H close above $0.1330 with volume expansion
• Entry: Retest of $0.1330 as support after breakout
• Target: $0.1505 (CHoCH bullish reversal level, premium zone entry)
• Invalidation: Failure to hold $0.1330 on retest, rejection back into wedge
MY VERDICT
The setup favors Scenario A with 62% confidence. Structure is bearish, volume is non-existent, and the unfilled FVG at $0.1263 acts as a magnet. But the wedge apex means the break happens soon... wait for the rejection at $0.1330 or the confirmed breakout above it. Let the market show its hand before committing capital.
What's your read on this compression? Are you waiting for the break or already positioned for one scenario?
1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY 📉
• Converging wedge apex: Descending resistance from $0.1400 (11 touches) meets ascending support at $0.1200 - $0.01 squeeze zone
• Structure broken: CHoCH Bearish confirmed with lower high formation, market structure favors downside
• Bearish order block: $0.1288-$0.1330 acting as supply zone, price testing the top right now
• Moving averages stacked bearish: Price below EMA20 ($0.1304), EMA50 ($0.1319), and EMA200 ($0.1442)
2. THE INDICATORS ⚖️
Bearish Signals:
• Volume collapse: $121M vs $728M average (83% drop), zero conviction behind breakout attempts
• Price trading in discount zone but unable to reclaim premium
• CHoCH Bearish with lower highs, structure thesis intact
Bullish Signals:
• MACD bullish crossover (0.0002 vs 0.0000), marginal at best
• Price above HMA55 ($0.1292) and Bollinger middle band ($0.1296)
• Lower wicks (34.2%) exceeding upper wicks (14.5%) on current candle
The Conflict:
RSI at 58.3 sits in neutral territory, not oversold enough to signal reversal, but not overbought either. The single-candle wick analysis shows buying pressure, but broader structure with CHoCH bearish matters more than one bar.
3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Wedge Rejection (Higher Probability)
• Trigger: Rejection at bearish OB $0.1330 with descending resistance hold
• Entry: Scale in $0.1300-$0.1310 on rejection wicks
• Target 1: $0.1263 (unfilled bullish FVG, imbalance needs filling)
• Target 2: $0.1198 (swing low + ascending support + bullish OB zone)
• Stop: 4H close above $0.1330 (bearish OB breaks, thesis invalidated)
🟢 Scenario B: Wedge Breakout (Requires Confirmation)
• Trigger: Strong 4H close above $0.1330 with volume expansion
• Entry: Retest of $0.1330 as support after breakout
• Target: $0.1505 (CHoCH bullish reversal level, premium zone entry)
• Invalidation: Failure to hold $0.1330 on retest, rejection back into wedge
MY VERDICT
The setup favors Scenario A with 62% confidence. Structure is bearish, volume is non-existent, and the unfilled FVG at $0.1263 acts as a magnet. But the wedge apex means the break happens soon... wait for the rejection at $0.1330 or the confirmed breakout above it. Let the market show its hand before committing capital.
What's your read on this compression? Are you waiting for the break or already positioned for one scenario?
منتخب سردبیر
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