Litecoin - Long-Term Bearish Structure, New Cycle Low Expected

During previous bull runs (2017 and 2021) , Litecoin consistently made new all-time highs , breaking above prior peaks. However, an important historical pattern stands out: each bear market formed higher lows , suggesting long-term range compression.

At the current stage, this structure appears to be changing. Price remains in a prolonged consolidation phase, and a bear flag has formed on the monthly timeframe, which is a classic bearish continuation pattern following a strong downside impulse.

Based on the overall market cycle structure and historical behavior, I expect a breakdown below previous bear market lows, with a new cycle bottom forming in the $24–20 range.

Key factors:

Clear bear flag on the 1M timeframe
Lack of a sustained uptrend since the 2021 peak
Weak bullish momentum and distribution structure
Market cycle dynamics


Cycle outlook:
2026 is expected to be a bearish year, potentially marking the final phase of this downtrend and the establishment of a macro bottom.

Invalidation:
A sustained breakout and hold above the upper boundary of the monthly bear flag would invalidate this bearish scenario.
This idea is designed for long-term traders and investors who analyze the market through cycle behavior and macro structure, rather than short-term price fluctuations.