BTC Bounce: فقط پولبک در روند نزولی
DomicChaina
مشخصات معامله
نوع معامله:
خرید
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۶۸,۱۳۶.۳۹
توضیحات
Hello everyone,
On the H4 timeframe, Bitcoin’s overall market structure remains largely unchanged. The dominant trend is still bearish, as price continues to trade below the long-term EMA cluster — a zone that typically separates a technical rebound from a genuine trend reversal.
Although Bitcoin has staged a fairly strong bounce from the 63,000–64,000 base area, the most recent lower high has not been broken. Price is only approaching the upper EMA zone, which acts as key dynamic resistance. In my view, unless Bitcoin can secure a clear H4 close above the 69,500–70,000 region, upside moves should still be treated as rebounds within a downtrend rather than reliable reversal signals.
Looking at the nature of the recent bounce, price action shows characteristics more consistent with short covering and a technical reaction than with the return of fresh capital. The rally accelerated after touching an oversold zone, while trading volume did not display the kind of expansion typically associated with institutional inflows into crypto. This pattern often occurs when short-term sell positions are closed, generating temporary upside pressure without altering the primary trend.
From an intermarket perspective, the current macro environment also does not strongly support a sustained bullish phase for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index remains relatively firm, while US equities continue to advance, suggesting capital preference toward stocks over higher-risk assets such as crypto. In addition, ongoing uncertainty around the monetary policy path keeps large capital cautious, which tends to delay meaningful reallocation back into Bitcoin.
In terms of key levels, the near resistance zone I’m monitoring lies around 68,800–69,800, aligning with the upper EMA band and the prior breakdown area. My base scenario is that Bitcoin may continue to rebound into this region, then lose momentum or show rejection signals before selling pressure re-emerges. On the downside, initial support sits near 66,500–66,000, followed by the 64,000–63,500 area — the most recent technical base.
On the H4 timeframe, Bitcoin’s overall market structure remains largely unchanged. The dominant trend is still bearish, as price continues to trade below the long-term EMA cluster — a zone that typically separates a technical rebound from a genuine trend reversal.
Although Bitcoin has staged a fairly strong bounce from the 63,000–64,000 base area, the most recent lower high has not been broken. Price is only approaching the upper EMA zone, which acts as key dynamic resistance. In my view, unless Bitcoin can secure a clear H4 close above the 69,500–70,000 region, upside moves should still be treated as rebounds within a downtrend rather than reliable reversal signals.
Looking at the nature of the recent bounce, price action shows characteristics more consistent with short covering and a technical reaction than with the return of fresh capital. The rally accelerated after touching an oversold zone, while trading volume did not display the kind of expansion typically associated with institutional inflows into crypto. This pattern often occurs when short-term sell positions are closed, generating temporary upside pressure without altering the primary trend.
From an intermarket perspective, the current macro environment also does not strongly support a sustained bullish phase for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index remains relatively firm, while US equities continue to advance, suggesting capital preference toward stocks over higher-risk assets such as crypto. In addition, ongoing uncertainty around the monetary policy path keeps large capital cautious, which tends to delay meaningful reallocation back into Bitcoin.
In terms of key levels, the near resistance zone I’m monitoring lies around 68,800–69,800, aligning with the upper EMA band and the prior breakdown area. My base scenario is that Bitcoin may continue to rebound into this region, then lose momentum or show rejection signals before selling pressure re-emerges. On the downside, initial support sits near 66,500–66,000, followed by the 64,000–63,500 area — the most recent technical base.
منتخب سردبیر
مشاهده بیشتردستیار هوشمند ارز دیجیتال
ترمینال ترید بایتیکل نرمافزار جامع ترید و سرمایهگذاری در بازار ارز دیجیتال است و امکاناتی مانند دورههای آموزشی ترید و سرمایهگذاری، تریدینگ ویو بدون محدودیت، هوش مصنوعی استراتژی ساز ترید، کلیه دادههای بازارهای مالی شامل دادههای اقتصاد کلان، تحلیل احساسات بازار، تکنیکال و آنچین، اتصال و مدیریت حساب صرافیها و تحلیلهای لحظهای را برای کاربران فراهم میکند.
