Technical and Fractal Analysis of Bitcoin

1. Current Scenario

- Price: ~US$ 68,000
- ATH Withdrawal (US$ 126,000): -46%
- Fear and Greed: 5/100 (extreme fear)
- Post-halving performance: 2024-28 cycle significantly below previous cycles at the same number of days after the halving (graph “Days after Halving”).

2. Fractal Analysis

The 1D chart shows a similar structure between the 2022-24 (Cycle 1) and 2024-26 (Cycle 2) movements:

- Bottom at ~US$ 34k (its marker)
- Strong rally to a new all-time high
- Sharp correction (current) replicating the correction of the previous cycle (Bear 1 vs Bear 2)
- Current behavior: the price is testing the region near US$ 68k, the same level where the previous cycle found support before the last leg of the rally.

3. Technical Implications

- Relevant support: US$ 60-68k (confluence region with the previous fractal).
- Resistance: US$ 126k (ATH) and, in a breakout scenario, projections close to US$ 150-180k, but with reduced strength due to the diminishing returns pattern.
- Extreme fear + large drawdown historically precede reversals, but the macro context and the loss of momentum post-halving require caution.

4. Objective Conclusion
- The fractal points to a continuation of the bullish structure after this correction, but the magnitude of the next movement tends to be smaller than in past cycles.
- The price in the current region offers a favorable risk/reward ratio if the historical support holds.
- Monitor the breakout of the short-term downtrend line for confirmation.

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