BTCUSDT – Swing long bias below yearly VWAP, targeting 78.5k

From a swing perspective I am neutral‑bullish on BTC as long as we hold above 67k, but I will not turn fully bullish until we get a clear daily close above the yearly VWAP, currently around 73.5k. After the recent liquidation dump to the 59k area and the subsequent recovery, price is now building a distribution/acceptance structure right below that VWAP, which acts as a main magnet for price.

I see the first important consolidation/acceptance zone between 67,000 and 67,500 – holding above this range keeps my long bias valid. A second consolidation area sits around 71,800–70,800, where volume profile shows a clear balance area and potential intermediate resistance. My primary upside target for this swing is 73,500–73,800, where I have confluence of the yearly VWAP and an older untouched POC that still needs to be tested; if this region is absorbed and BTC can close daily above it, I will extend the trade toward 77,500–78,300 as the next major liquidity/resistance block.

Positioning, liquidations and trade plan
On Hyperdash, in the last three days I see a notable shift from bearish to bullish positioning: roughly 906 BTC in longs vs 886 BTC in shorts, with “extremely profitable traders” sitting 52% long vs 48% short. Total notional exposure is about 360M USD in longs versus 237M USD in shorts, and around 80k there is currently a short‑liquidation cluster of roughly 60.8M USD, which could fuel a squeeze if price reaches that zone. As long as BTC holds above 67k I keep a swing‑long bias, targeting first 73.5k–73.8k (partial TP / manage stops) and then 77.5k–78,300 if yearly VWAP is reclaimed; invalidation for the idea is a sustained daily close back below 67k, which would open the door for deeper retests toward the previous liquidation area around 62–60k


Trade safe and have patience !