برنامه معاملاتی ETHUSDT (8 دسامبر 2025)

ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025)

(D1 / H4 / H1 / M15)

⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4)

• D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt)
• D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762
• Key D1 zones:
• Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster)
• Demand: $2,800–$3,050
• H4 bias: buy dips
• H4 zones of interest:
• H4 Sell Zone 1: – previous rejection cluster (decaying)
• H4 Buy Zone 1: – OB + HVN + weekend absorption
All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure.

⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon

🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4)
• Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation).
• Time horizon: multi-day.
🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus)
• Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone.
• Time horizon: today / overnight.
▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus)
• Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140.
• Time horizon: minutes–hours.
▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept
• Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up.

🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers
Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned)

• Execution timeframe: H1
• Trigger timeframe: M15/M5
• Entry zone:
• Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying
• Pattern tags:
Trigger conditions:
• Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy)
• CVD positive or diverging bullish
• ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65
• No aggressive ask walls rebuilding

🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels)

Long setups:
• Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand)
• Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed.

🟢 5. Targets

Long:
• TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4)
• TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1)
• TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1)

⬛️ 6. Position Sizing

• Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0%
• Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news)
• Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps

⬛️ 7. Risk Flags

• Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk
• Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia)
• High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips
• Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure)

⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions

Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative.

⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario

Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger.

⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique

• Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock.
• Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption.
• Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops.

⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints

Uncertainty: medium
Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.