منطق اصلی نزولی

Core Bearish Logic
(Continuing to cap the upside)

📌1. Institutional short-term profit-taking; complete absence of fresh capital inflows
ETFs have shifted from consecutive net inflows to net redemptions, and major asset managers are locking in profits in stages above the $66,000 level. This rally was driven by a short squeeze and expectations of cooling inflation rather than sustained long-term capital inflows; without volume to support the surge, a pullback driven by profit-taking sell-offs is inevitable.

✍2. High uncertainty regarding the Fed meeting; bulls are wary of chasing highs
With only two trading days remaining before the July 29 interest rate decision, there is significant disagreement over whether a rate hike will occur. Capital is generally moving to the sidelines to avoid risk, showing little appetite for aggressive long positions. Should the decision signal a hawkish stance, the market would quickly revert to a downtrend; consequently, there is extremely low willingness to chase the price higher.

🌐3. Heavy overhead resistance from trapped positions; fading short-term bullish momentum
A large volume of "trapped" positions—accumulated during previous rallies that failed to hold—sits in the $66,000–$66,400 range, with the previous high of $66,900 acting as a formidable resistance level. Hourly rebound volume continues to shrink; the bounce is merely a spike triggered by news rather than a sustained, one-sided rally, making "surge-and-pullback" the norm.
Intraday Bearish Resistance Levels
Primary intraday resistance for shorting: $66,000 – $66,400 (Optimal zone for entering short positions)
Strong medium-term resistance: $66,800 – $67,000 (Previous high of the current rally; low probability of being reached intraday)