بیشتر مردم کف بیت‌کوین را از دست خواهند داد — چرا؟

Even though the market looks “cheap” locally and a bounce toward $80K–$85K is very possible, it’s way too early to relax.

This is not the time to deploy full capital.

Yes, extremal fear is already in the market. But in bear cycles, fear can last much longer than people expect.

My base case 🧠

Final BTC bottom → $28.000–$35.000

Here’s why 👇

1️⃣ The downtend cycle isn’t finished
snapshot

Historically:
• BTC bear markets last ~12 months
• Altcoin markets → 18–24 months

We’re likely still mid-cycle.

The market still needs about six months of weakness before a full-fledged accumulation and growth phase begins. In other words, in terms of timing, the bear market hasn't yet fully played out.

2️⃣ Market structure has flipped
snapshot


Bull market:
→ impulse → consolidation → impulse

Now:
→ drop → consolidation → drop

Every bounce is just a pause before the next move down.
Classic bearish structure.

3️⃣ ETF buyers zone = liquidity target
snapshot

BTC ETFs launched around $40.000–$45.000
Main accumulation: $50.000–$70.000

That’s a massive cluster of positions.
Markets don’t ignore liquidity. To shake out early buyers, price often moves below the main accumulation zone.

4️⃣ The drawdown isn’t deep enough

Previous bear markets:
• 2015 → -85%
• 2018 → -84%
• 2022 → -77%

Now:
2026 → only -50%

A -70% scenario puts BTC around $37.000. It's aligns with deeper downside potential

❗️What invalidates this scenario?

Two key triggers:
1. Break above $80K–$85K trendline → bearish structure is broken
2. Fed pivots to liquidity expansion → no reason for deep downside anymore

🐻 Until then the trend remains down.
The bottom won’t come when people expect it
It will come when people stop waiting for it