Bitcoin(BTC), has yet to reach a cyclical low.

BINANCE:BTCUSDT
It’s been about four months since my post calling the end of Bitcoin’s bullish season, and here is an updated cycle-based outlook.

(CME chart during the 22-year bear market)

After forming a downside gap near the 81K level, Bitcoin saw a one-way selloff down to around 60K, followed by a technical rebound.

I believe this 81K gap is likely to be filled in the next bullish cycle, similar to the price action observed during the 2022 bear market.

From a cycle perspective, the macro bottom is expected to form around August–September 2026. Until then, Bitcoin may continue moving in a prolonged consolidation phase driven more by time correction than sharp price movements.

My projected downside target zones are:
• Primary zone: 49K–52K
• Deeper correction: below 39K
• Extreme scenario: toward the 32K region

However, if price moves up first and fills the 81K gap, this bearish cycle scenario will be invalidated.

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