BTC/USD Weekly - cycle top in, mid-drawdown, accumulation not ye
GovindSatoshi
مشخصات معامله
قیمت در زمان انتشار:
۷۶,۹۳۰.۰۴
توضیحات
Framing the weekly against cycle position rather than just support and resistance.
Cycle position: BTC is approximately 25 months post the April 2024 halving. Historical cycle tops printed 12 to 18 months post-halving - Nov 2013, Dec 2017, Nov 2021. The 2024-2025 cycle extended slightly with cycle top printing around October 2025 at USD 128k.
Pi Cycle Top confirmation: the 111-day MA × 2 (orange line on chart, currently around USD 86,000) crossed above the 350-day MA × 2 (green line, currently around USD 94,242) during the late-2025 peak. Pi Cycle Top has marked cycle tops within days of the actual peak in every prior BTC cycle - 2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025.
Today: BTC at USD 76.9k, roughly 40 percent off ATH, 6 to 7 months into the post-cycle drawdown. Price is below both the EMA 50 weekly (85,171) and EMA 100 weekly (82,280). Standard post-cycle structural setup.
Historical drawdown anchors:
- 2018 bottom: USD 3.2k, -84 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top
- 2022 bottom: USD 15.5k, -77 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top
- Current cycle: -40 percent from ATH at 6 to 7 months in. Either early in the drawdown (more downside to USD 40-50k zone) OR this cycle is structurally shallower because of the spot ETF demand layer.
Multi-tier confluence checklist for calling a cycle bottom (not just mid-cycle support):
- Cycle-timing tier: 12 to 18 months past cycle top. Currently 6 to 7 months. Premature.
- Valuation tier: Mayer Multiple below 0.8, Pi Cycle Bottom indicator firing, Power Law deviation in lower quartile.
- Sentiment tier: Fear and Greed below 20 sustained for 30+ days.
- Miner tier: Hash Ribbons BUY signal after miner capitulation, Puell Multiple below 0.5.
- Rotation tier: BTC dominance rising through 60 percent.
None of the bottom-confluence tiers are firing meaningfully today. This looks like mid-cycle drawdown rather than late-cycle capitulation. Bottom thesis would strengthen on a deeper move into the USD 50-60k zone combined with Hash Ribbons BUY.
ASIC 30:1 leverage cap applies for Australian retail traders on crypto CFD positions.
Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
- Govind (ex-institutional trader)
Cycle position: BTC is approximately 25 months post the April 2024 halving. Historical cycle tops printed 12 to 18 months post-halving - Nov 2013, Dec 2017, Nov 2021. The 2024-2025 cycle extended slightly with cycle top printing around October 2025 at USD 128k.
Pi Cycle Top confirmation: the 111-day MA × 2 (orange line on chart, currently around USD 86,000) crossed above the 350-day MA × 2 (green line, currently around USD 94,242) during the late-2025 peak. Pi Cycle Top has marked cycle tops within days of the actual peak in every prior BTC cycle - 2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025.
Today: BTC at USD 76.9k, roughly 40 percent off ATH, 6 to 7 months into the post-cycle drawdown. Price is below both the EMA 50 weekly (85,171) and EMA 100 weekly (82,280). Standard post-cycle structural setup.
Historical drawdown anchors:
- 2018 bottom: USD 3.2k, -84 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top
- 2022 bottom: USD 15.5k, -77 percent from ATH, 12 months from cycle top
- Current cycle: -40 percent from ATH at 6 to 7 months in. Either early in the drawdown (more downside to USD 40-50k zone) OR this cycle is structurally shallower because of the spot ETF demand layer.
Multi-tier confluence checklist for calling a cycle bottom (not just mid-cycle support):
- Cycle-timing tier: 12 to 18 months past cycle top. Currently 6 to 7 months. Premature.
- Valuation tier: Mayer Multiple below 0.8, Pi Cycle Bottom indicator firing, Power Law deviation in lower quartile.
- Sentiment tier: Fear and Greed below 20 sustained for 30+ days.
- Miner tier: Hash Ribbons BUY signal after miner capitulation, Puell Multiple below 0.5.
- Rotation tier: BTC dominance rising through 60 percent.
None of the bottom-confluence tiers are firing meaningfully today. This looks like mid-cycle drawdown rather than late-cycle capitulation. Bottom thesis would strengthen on a deeper move into the USD 50-60k zone combined with Hash Ribbons BUY.
ASIC 30:1 leverage cap applies for Australian retail traders on crypto CFD positions.
Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.
- Govind (ex-institutional trader)
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